Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, in his latest Crystal Ball newsletter, discusses the prospect of a difficult race for Senator McConnell:
"We rather doubt it, though we reserve judgment until we see the name of the Democratic nominee. McConnell has already socked away a great deal of money, and there is no one shrewder in politics than he, so any Democratic candidate will have an uphill battle."
Likewise, Chris Cillizza recently pondered the subject on washingtonpost.com’s The Fix asking “Is Mitch McConnell the next Tom Daschle?”
A perceived difference between what McConnell says in Kentucky and what he does in Washington is dangerous to him politically; it was a chasm that Daschle, who was serving as leader of Senate Democrats during his 2004 re-election bid, was unable to bridge. Republicans effectively used positions Daschle was forced to stand behind as leader of the party to paint him as a Washington insider divorced from the beliefs and views of everyday South Dakotans. McConnell, like Daschle, has been pummeled on television by a variety of outside groups for stand he has taken as a GOP leader.
That brings us to the "but" part of our answer to the question of whether McConnell can be beaten.
The comparison between Daschle and McConnell works only to a point. While Daschle was a Democrat running in a state where Bush won by 22 points in 2004, McConnell is running as a Republican in a state that Bush carried by 20 points that same year.
The average South Dakota voter was clearly more conservative than Daschle and was open to an argument that he had "gone Washington." The average Kentucky voter is probably relatively close to McConnell ideologically even if they have soured on Bush and the war in Iraq.
The other major factor in McConnell's favor are his widely acknowledged -- even by Democrats -- fundraising and political skills.
At the end of September, McConnell had $6.8 million on hand and had already raised more than $9 million total for his race to date. Given his leadership post, McConnell will be able to raise and spend a lot of money -- ensuring that whoever runs against him is likely to be outspent, even when factoring in the huge financial advantage the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has over its Republican counterpart. Any Democratic challenger to McConnell will start in a HUGE financial hole that McConnell will do his best to dig deeper over the next few months.
And, love him or hate him, McConnell is a VERY savvy politician who understands what he needs to do to get elected even in an extremely tough political environment like this one. After defeating a Democratic incumbent in 1984, McConnell crushed former Louisville Mayor Harvey Sloane in 1990 and beat Beshear by 12 points six years later. In his last re-election race, McConnell took 65 percent of the vote.
Those results seem likely to keep Democrats' potential top recruit -- Rep. Ben Chandler -- out of the race. Chandler lost to Fletcher in the 2003 governor's race but bounced back to win a special election for Fletcher's Congressional seat the next year. Chandler has repeatedly expressed no interest in a challenge to McConnell and party insiders acknowledge there's no there there. (Chandler may be waiting until 2010 when Republican Sen. Jim Bunning is up for re-election.)
Without Chandler, Democrats are likely to turn to one (or several) individuals, a crowd that includes elected officials like state Attorney General Greg Stumbo state Auditor Crit Luallen, wealthy businessmen Bruce Lunsford and Greg Fischer or even failed 2006 Congressional candidate Andrew Horne.
… Regardless of which Democrat runs, McConnell will not go quietly. He has a seasoned and well-respected political team around him who understand that he could be in for a real race … In a cycle where Democrats have opportunities all over the map, this seat is still a long shot.
That brings us to the "but" part of our answer to the question of whether McConnell can be beaten.
The comparison between Daschle and McConnell works only to a point. While Daschle was a Democrat running in a state where Bush won by 22 points in 2004, McConnell is running as a Republican in a state that Bush carried by 20 points that same year.
The average South Dakota voter was clearly more conservative than Daschle and was open to an argument that he had "gone Washington." The average Kentucky voter is probably relatively close to McConnell ideologically even if they have soured on Bush and the war in Iraq.
The other major factor in McConnell's favor are his widely acknowledged -- even by Democrats -- fundraising and political skills.
At the end of September, McConnell had $6.8 million on hand and had already raised more than $9 million total for his race to date. Given his leadership post, McConnell will be able to raise and spend a lot of money -- ensuring that whoever runs against him is likely to be outspent, even when factoring in the huge financial advantage the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has over its Republican counterpart. Any Democratic challenger to McConnell will start in a HUGE financial hole that McConnell will do his best to dig deeper over the next few months.
And, love him or hate him, McConnell is a VERY savvy politician who understands what he needs to do to get elected even in an extremely tough political environment like this one. After defeating a Democratic incumbent in 1984, McConnell crushed former Louisville Mayor Harvey Sloane in 1990 and beat Beshear by 12 points six years later. In his last re-election race, McConnell took 65 percent of the vote.
Those results seem likely to keep Democrats' potential top recruit -- Rep. Ben Chandler -- out of the race. Chandler lost to Fletcher in the 2003 governor's race but bounced back to win a special election for Fletcher's Congressional seat the next year. Chandler has repeatedly expressed no interest in a challenge to McConnell and party insiders acknowledge there's no there there. (Chandler may be waiting until 2010 when Republican Sen. Jim Bunning is up for re-election.)
Without Chandler, Democrats are likely to turn to one (or several) individuals, a crowd that includes elected officials like state Attorney General Greg Stumbo state Auditor Crit Luallen, wealthy businessmen Bruce Lunsford and Greg Fischer or even failed 2006 Congressional candidate Andrew Horne.
… Regardless of which Democrat runs, McConnell will not go quietly. He has a seasoned and well-respected political team around him who understand that he could be in for a real race … In a cycle where Democrats have opportunities all over the map, this seat is still a long shot.
